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Trump’s Easy Win in 2020, According to Moody

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Trump’s Easy Win in 2020, According to Moody

Trump’s Easy Win in 2020, According to Moody
October 17
15:46 2019

According to Moody’s historical election model, President Trump will easily win re-election in 2020.

The Moody model has accurately picked the winner of a presidential race almost every time since 1980, the “almost” came in 2016 when Moody picked Hillary Clinton to win by a narrow margin.

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Thus far 3-models show the President receiving anywhere from 289 to 351 electoral votes, assuming there’s an average turnout, which would surpass his 216 electoral votes in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics along with Dan White and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist.

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote.” Adding, “It’s about turnout.”

Moody bases its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation. Gains within the stock market have improved everyone’s investment portfolios along with 401 K’s.

Unemployment has fallen to a record-breaking 50-year low, along with workers seeing more take-home pay in their paychecks.

Of the 3-models referenced the President does extremely well with “pocketbook” issues and how people feel about their own personal finances.

In that scenario, assuming average turnout, the President is likely to get 351 electoral votes to a generic Democratic challenger of just 187 electoral votes. The report emphases that in order for Democrats to be competitive a “record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory.”

The second model concerns the stock market; the President gets a 289 to 249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332 to 206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins by 324 electoral votes to 214 electoral votes for the generic Democratic challenger.

This is perhaps the real reason why Democrats are attempting to circumvent the 2020 election process with a bogus impeachment inquiry, hoping to drive the President’s approval numbers down among independent voters.

The historically accurate report emphases, “Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the President would steamroll the competition.”

Adding, “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”

The President thus far has excellent economic tailwinds going into 2020; the jobless unemployment rate in September dropped 0.2% to 3.5% making it the lowest since 1969.

Another positive sign found more discouraged and underemployed workers finding jobs in nearly 19 years to 6.9%, and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.

However, there are some concerns especially with China and fears of escalating weakness abroad that can affect our own economy at home that the President must be mindful of, and which can cause a recession.

September’s forecast showed a continued contraction in manufacturing and a decline in the much larger services industry.

“Today’s data don’t change the fundamental economic picture,” said Eric Winograd, senior U.S. economist at Alliance/Bernstein. “The labor market is still strong, adding more than enough jobs each month to absorb new entrants to the labor force. But even with a strong labor market, wage growth remains muted, limiting the risk that labor market tightness will push inflation meaningfully higher. The question that matters most for the economy is how long the labor market can stay strong given the ongoing slowdown in growth.”

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