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Is it bye bye for Biden?

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Is it bye bye for Biden?

Is it bye bye for Biden?
July 03
20:47 2019

According to the chronicles of public opinion, former Vice President Joe Biden took a browbeating from California Senator Kamala Harris during their match-up in the second half of the Democrats’ first presidential debate and he is suffering a case of political PTS (Post Trauma Syndrome).  On average, his polling numbers dropped approximately 10 points.  Harris gained around 6 points – putting her in double digits for the first time.  According to the CNN poll, Harris moves into second place – with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren two points behind her for third.

Warren seems to have improved her numbers by the fact that she was the only major player – meaning polling in double digits – on the stage for the first half of the Democrats first debate.  When I first saw them on stage, my initial impression was Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs – actually nine, but who was counting?  There was almost no way for Warren to NOT come out as the winner.

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Looking past the Biden-Harris sparring, there are some additional noteworthy outcomes.  Vermont’s socialist Senator Bernie Sanders dropped to fourth place after many months of being the guy to beat Biden.  His and Biden’s drop suggests that this is not the season for old white guys.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker remains in single digits despite his attempt to ride Harris’ skirt-tail as the number two critic of Biden’s bussing boo-boo.  South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg surprisingly lost ground despite his notably good performance on the debate stage and his impressive collection of $25 million in campaign contributions in the days following the debate.

Of course, most of the attention and speculation is about Biden.  Even as this commentary goes public, the aftershocks of Biden’s most recent rhetorical blunders are still reverberating.  Having gained a reputation of a man who keeps one foot on the ground and the other in his mouth, you can count on the political pundit class to keep that reputation alive with constant sightings of future blunders that would have otherwise gone unnoticed.  Biden’s maladroit statements are now an iconic part of his public persona.

The question is … is this a dip in the long road to the primaries or is it the beginning of a downward slide into the world of political has-beens?

I am inclined to believe it is the latter.  That does not mean that it will be a precipitous decline.  Biden may be a contender for several months.  He has a big bankroll and a lot of powerful supporters.  But over the long run, I think he is up against a voting block that wants a younger and much more radical leader.  Biden is tacking to the left, but it will not be enough – and all those issues in his past will dog him.

Another problem for Biden is that he is not doing any better in Iowa — the nation’s first “primary.”  The Democrats in the Hawkeye State are surprisingly more left-wing than the general populace.  At the time of the Iowa caucuses, the majority of those currently dividing up the potential vote will have been eliminated.

It is important to keep in mind that he may have 22 percent of the voters – giving him a narrow plurality – but the remaining 78 percent are divided among candidates who are to the left of Biden.  Even worse, according to the CNN poll, Harris, Warren and Sanders – arguably the three most radical contenders – have a combined 46 percent of the vote.  As candidates start dropping off, it is unlikely that Biden will get the lion’s share of their voters – and eventually one of the major left-wingers will start to accumulate votes from the others.  When that happens, Biden’s one-fifth will not be enough to hold the lead.  If Biden loses the lead at any point, it is probably the end of the trail for him.

Then there is the question as to whether Biden has the “gut” for a long grueling campaign.  He didn’t in 2016 when his chances were better.  In addition to the impact of all those hard-hitting attacks on his past record, Biden has yet another family issue.  His son, Hunter, is the source of constant pain and embarrassment.  There are the younger Biden’s cocaine addiction issues, his entering into a relationship with his late brother’s wife and a whirlwind marriage after meeting the gal less than a two weeks before the nuptials.

When we head into the big primary days, look for the race to be between Harris and Warren.  Democrats want to put the first woman in the White House.  They thought they had it with Hillary Clinton, but her defeat has only strengthened the desire.  An old white guy in the White House is the last thing they want.

So, there ‘tis.

About Author

Larry Horist

Larry Horist

Larry Horist is a conservative activist with an extensive background in economics, public policy and politics. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman, as well as the White House. He has testified as an expert witness before legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and lectured at major colleges and universities. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He can be reached at lph@thomasandjoyce.com.

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  1. JoeyP
    JoeyP July 07, 18:16

    Wow! . . . I guess the Democrats have NOBODY to run against TRUMP. The Democrats are a bunch of Granola politicians – Fruits, nuts and flakes. Trump and his allies 2020.

    Reply to this comment
  2. Johnny A
    Johnny A July 07, 18:42

    I think Trump will win again!
    He has more brains than all of them together.

    Reply to this comment
  3. baggriff
    baggriff July 08, 16:34

    So it will be dog eat dog and no one working together at all. So when they have a leader they will tare them down and end up with no one at all that can win!

    Reply to this comment

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