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Democrat presidential race by the numbers

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Democrat presidential race by the numbers

Democrat presidential race by the numbers
May 13
15:30 2019

Every poll shows some marginal differences in the relative strength of the Democrat candidates vying for the party’s nomination.  While the numbers are not predictive of how things will stand in the all-important eight-week lead up to the General Election in November 2020, they do give some idea as to the thinking of likely Democrat voters today.

So, let’s look at the Monmouth poll – one of the most current.

The most important bit of information to be gleaned from the poll is that former Vice President Joe Biden is in the lead with 36 percent of the votes.  The two things that can be drawn from that figure is that it is a few percentage points above his pre-announcement figure of approximately 29 percent.  We can also note that almost two-thirds – 64 percent – of Democrats prefer someone else or have not made up their minds.

More good news for Biden is that he has double the support of Vermont’s socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, who stands at 18 percent in the Monmouth poll.  While Biden has gained a wee bit of ground, Sanders has dropped from the mid-20s.

Combined these two old white men have 54 percent of the vote.  In fact, they are the only candidates in the race to have reached double digits.  Ponder that.  Nineteen of the other candidates are ALL ranking under 10 percent.  Following behind Sanders is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9 percent, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent, California Senator Kamala Harris at 6 percent and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke all at 2 percent. It is sobering to realize that “leading candidates” are languishing at the 2 percent level – geez.

Since the top eight were the only results publicized by the press, it is safe to presume that the remaining 13 of the so-far announced candidates – those below 2 percent — are each fighting to break out of the fraction of a percentage category.

The top eight candidates account for 83 percent of the vote – leaving just 17 percent for the one percenters to grapple over.  If that remaining 17 percent were distributed evenly, the one percenters would all have no more than 1.3 percent of the vote.

Another way to look at it is that only the top five are even above the margin of error.  That means it is conceivable – and probably likely – that a goodly number of the contenders who do not appear on the television screens have no measurable support at all.

That creates a significant problem when it comes to debates.  In years past, parties often established a five percent polling requirement to be eligible to participate in a presidential debate. That would eliminate some of the biggest names in the Democratic Party – including a few of those highly touted diversity candidates.

Republicans got around that problem in 2014 by creating a two-tier debate format – relegating the lesser candidates to what some called “the kiddie pool” debate.  That is not an option for Democrats, so it is likely that the upcoming debates will be unimanually uninteresting – and unlikely to retain view interest.  It will also require the candidates to become outlandish to get attention – which worked for Trump.

Except for Biden and Klobuchar, the top eight is composed of the more radically left democrat candidates.  Just for the fun of it, if you give Biden Klobuchar’s 2 percent and give Sanders the 27 percent of the left-leaners among the top eight, the Vermont senator pulls ahead with 45 percent to Biden’s 38 percent. Most of the one percenters are also on the left.  When the candidates start dropping out, as most will, it appears the advantage goes to Sanders.

As a closing thought, I am remined how many times in past presidential races we conjectured on who would survive the campaign.  This year, it seems to be a more literal question.

So, there ‘tis.

About Author

Larry Horist

Larry Horist

Larry Horist is a conservative activist with an extensive background in economics, public policy and politics. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman, as well as the White House. He has testified as an expert witness before legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and lectured at major colleges and universities. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He can be reached at lph@thomasandjoyce.com.

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6 Comments

  1. Doug C.
    Doug C. May 14, 19:13

    I don’t see Typhoid Shrillary’s photo up there. And we all know she’s lurking behind the curtain, waiting to pounce for the nomination.
    .
    Again.

    Reply to this comment
  2. Doug C.
    Doug C. May 14, 19:23

    The bigger question is who among all these declared and potential other candidates will press on with a campaign as an independent, as Jill Stein did.
    .
    For example, will Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii’s U.S. Rep. and the biggest Jew-hater of all among the Jew-envying Donk field, run as an independent?
    .
    Chances are that no one in the field has the courage of her or his convictions.
    .
    But what about Crazy Bernie? If he’s not nominated, he’s a certain failure. This is his last shot. He can play hardball with the party leadership. Is he willing to withhold his endorsement and support (assuming he’s not the nominee)?
    .
    Or will be hold out only for money, as he did the last time, to buy more homes and other uber-luxuries. How can a global warming alarmist justify owning more than one home anyway? Look at all that literal warming and air conditioning provided for an empty building.
    .
    Any warming alarmist, like Algore and the Kennedys, who have multiple residences is an obvious hypocrite and clear fraud and is ripe for conniving and colluding.
    .
    Perfect description for Bernie (who claims to be an independent, not a Donk) and his fellow reprobates.

    Reply to this comment
  3. TK in PA
    TK in PA May 14, 22:33

    I think maybe half of these candidates are really posturing to be a VP selection. Either that or they are very stupid for wasting a lot of time and money

    Reply to this comment
  4. Mr Fumblefingers
    Mr Fumblefingers May 15, 03:27

    I have a nagging little thought that Michelle Obama my throw her Kufi Kofi in the ring sometime in November or December.THAT should throw the Democrat primaries into a frenzy. That alone will make 2020 worth the wait.

    Reply to this comment
  5. Dedeye
    Dedeye May 15, 14:21

    No matter WHO gets the final nod to participate for the USA’s highest office, it won’t be good for the right-leaners as the Donks will further their socialistic agenda to help destroy our country. As for the entire field running for POWER, they need not worry, for as the socialist Dem mindset dictates, they will ALL get a trophy just for participating.

    Reply to this comment
    • Dedeye
      Dedeye May 19, 17:47

      My comment seems to have been edited. In the first sentence, instead of reading as “right-leapers”, it should have been RIGHT LEANERS. Or maybe it’s a glitch by auto correct?

      Reply to this comment

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