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Trump should not declare a national emergency … at least not yet

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Trump should not declare a national emergency … at least not yet

Trump should not declare a national emergency … at least not yet
January 10
19:52 2019

Will the debate over President Trump declaring the situation at the southern border to be a national emergency be another firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller story. In other words, endless media speculation and criticism about something that does not happen. The emergency order theory was THE topic of media conjecture in advance of Trump’s address to the nation.

As is always the case, the east coast media Big Seven cabal (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, New York Times and Washington Post) are unanimous in their belief – or at least what they want America to believe – that the only way our federal workers will get back to their jobs is for the President to cave in. They describe Trump’s position as stubborn, petulant, uncaring and untenable – while they report the obstinance of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as strong, principled and courageous.

In their collective minds, Trump will have to give up his demand for the border barrier and acquiesce to the Democrats vague  – and largely ineffective – funding of some “technological” improvements – which are also part of Trump’s overall border protection plan.

They have now grasped on the calling of a national emergency as Trump’s face-saving exit strategy. To put it simply, they propose that Trump should declare a national emergency to build his “wall” and simultaneously sign off on the Democrat Continuing Resolution (Budget) Bill to get the federal workers back on the job. The emergency order would be challenged in the courts by Democrats and – in the judgment of the know-it-alls in the press – the President loses. He can then simply shrug his shoulders and say he tried.

Even in that scenario, Trump does have an option to declare the emergency and still not agree to any Continuing Resolution that does not contain his $5.7 billion request until he can start construction on his barrier fences, walls, stockades or whatever you want to call them. In that case, to bring the bureaucrats back to their desks, Democrats would have to avoid a legal challenge and allow Trump to start construction. That is the least likely scenario, however.

The best strategy for Trump is the one he is currently implementing. Sit tight. Let the shutdown run. While the Big Seven anti-Trump media keeps selling the notion that Schumer/Pelosi will NEVER give in on funding that damned, immoral wall that they fully supported not long ago, they fail to consider the necessity of their side having to eventually fold.

While they offer Trump what they see as a face-saver, they do not suggest one for their side – for Pelosi & Co. Maybe that is because there is not one. If they ultimately have to give Trump his $5.7 billion dollars – and I believe they would — it will mean utter political humiliation and the explosion of their radical base. In the worst or best-case scenario – depending on your politics – it would likely divide the Democratic Party into warring camps. That is the corner into which Schumer and Pelosi have painted their party.

The Democrats and their media colleagues may have been condemning of Trump’s walking out of the meeting, but it was exactly the right move and the right message. If Pelosi is adamant in refusing to give Trump his funding, there is nothing more that can be discussed. Take that off the table, and all other issues simply talk. Why waste time – as Trump described it – in negotiating anything when the central demand is off the table? The refusal to fund Trump’s border request is what caused the shutdown in the first place. Continuing to refuse will not end it.

The only way forward is for Pelosi to agree to the $5.7 billion and then lay out her demands as the offset – some level of face-saving. That’s it.

The Big Seven describe Trump as having painted himself into a corner. Actually, he is standing exactly where he wants and needs to be to win this fight. AND … the longer Schumer and Pelosi hold out, the more unconditional the surrender will be.

While I am sure that Trump does not get my commentaries in his daily media briefing file, he has, so far, followed the strategy I first laid out a few weeks back. He should hang tough and NOT declare a national emergency. The fact that the anti-Trump media – in what can only be described as an Alice in Wonderland strategy — is pushing for him to declare the emergency at the same time they say he does not have the authority to do so, should be reason enough to reject the idea.

The shift in public pressure from Trump to the Democrats is already taking place. A few of the anti-Trump folks are taking note. BBC’s Katty Kay used her frequent appearance on Morning Joe to raise the question as to whether pressure would shift to the Democrats. And on the same program, regular Donny Deutsch frustratingly declared that Trump could be winning.

Getting Trump to declare the national emergency is a last-ditch effort by the Trump Resistance Movement to avoid political disaster. Panic is starting to set in. Their whistling-past-the-graveyard strategy is starting to crumble.

Trump should not invoke his national emergency authority at this time. He should stay the course. As long as he can count on Senate Republicans to uphold any veto or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to block legislation – as former Senate Leader Harry Reid had done for President Obama (who actually called Reid his “blocker.”) – Trump will win this standoff.

Trump should use his time to keep selling his strong points. There are drugs and bad actors who come here over the border despite what Democrats claim. More than 300,000 arrests this year is a LOT, even if it is not as many as in the past. The wall and other protections are needed. And minuscule amount money for the “wall” is a very small price to pay to re-open the government, improve border security and – if everyone is smart – get a solution to the DACA Dreamers situation. That is a win for everyone in America – with the possible exception of Schumer and Pelosi. But, oh well.

So, there ‘tis.

About Author

Larry Horist

Larry Horist

Larry Horist is a conservative activist with an extensive background in economics, public policy and politics. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman, as well as the White House. He has testified as an expert witness before legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and lectured at major colleges and universities. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He can be reached at lph@thomasandjoyce.com.

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11 Comments

  1. Chelemark
    Chelemark January 11, 20:10

    I have written it before and I will do it again you are an asshole. Instead of pitting one against the other, since you think you are so damn smart, where is your solution to this. Nope you have to play this dumb game like you say everybody else does.
    You’re just useless trash, same as those run the white house.

    Reply to this comment
  2. Alice
    Alice January 11, 21:05

    GO GO Go President Trump do what you have to to get that wall built before all those people get in and take over

    Reply to this comment
  3. NavyJR
    NavyJR January 11, 21:50

    The sad fact is that most of the workers furloughed or not being paid, at present are union sorts; and that means they probably vote left anyway, so it’s their own base they’re hurting by not just funding the wall, doubly; both in lost pay and credit ratings; and in the threat to their lives and health the illegals they want brought in pose. I have to wonder if Pelosi and Schumer have considered that fact, or if it’s simply they just do not care about any Americans?

    Reply to this comment
    • Roech
      Roech January 13, 03:22

      Most are Obama holdovers and hate Trump, so let them quit and go elsewhere meaning we can see a lot of “non-essential” employees moving on and savings us thousands to millions of dollars.

      Reply to this comment
  4. DG
    DG January 12, 00:32

    All sides had agreed to a continuing resolution bill in early December, including Trump. And then Coulter, Limbaugh, Hannity, etc. started bleating their BS and Trump backed out. The shutdown is totally on him.
    Negotiation means that both sides give a little, both sides get a little, and no one gets 100 of what they want. Demanding is not negotiating. The U.S. government is not the Trump Organization; he doesn’t get to dictate how things are going to be.

    Reply to this comment
    • Wallace
      Wallace January 12, 20:19

      You moron, least you forget Trump has made several attempts at compromise and furthering dialog. What have the liberals in congress proposed to end the stalemate??? Exactly nothing.Typical liberal assertions. Hush. Hush. You are merely making a fool of yourself.

      Reply to this comment
  5. Bob
    Bob January 12, 01:18

    Navy JR. But these people who have been furloughed will be paid in full upon returning to work. They are essentially on a paid leave and not being hurt by it other than having to fund their own lives for a few weeks while this plays out. Also, unless I am mistaken, they get a form of interest on their backpay.

    Reply to this comment
  6. Edward Leckey
    Edward Leckey January 12, 01:44

    Please do it now Mr. President! I am sick and tired of all of the BS from both sides. Oh! I am a Fed.

    Reply to this comment
  7. outtanj
    outtanj January 12, 12:06

    Who cares?, about federal workers pay, I was outta work several times in my life and nobody cared I managed to get through it. Quit beatin the dead horse.

    Reply to this comment
  8. Do not dislikeTrump
    Do not dislikeTrump January 12, 13:32

    The DEMONrats in congress CAN not get by their HATRED of Trump and anything he wants done.
    If Trump says the sky was gray today then those DEMONrats would say the sky it was blue because that was Trumps idea to tell everybody it was a gray day and it gets people down, Trump tells people that they should look at the BRIGHT side and look up because the day will get brighter and those DEMONrats would say something like why look up and get your face wet wit the rain coming down and it was trumps FAULT for the rain.
    The people coming here via that backdoor route needs a place to stay and your house weould do nicely so let them in and they will only stay until they can find a better place to stay, even if they have to kick their owners out so they could not LOCK them out.

    Reply to this comment
  9. ICU4PROD
    ICU4PROD January 13, 07:43

    Americans’ have to make a very critical decision here … If Americans’ don’t think Donald Trump argument about border security are serious enough for the United States of America to be protected with a barrier; then, all those that contradict his concern with the plague that has been destroying our American way of life are just throwing themselves under the bus. Look Around forget all the hype, small talk, and subliminal perception of The Commander and Chief and start seeing for yourself what all these left wing socialist are really trying to do … a hostile taken over of American. Even, the American Minister Louis Farrakhan has spoken in support of Mr. Trump and his mentioned that he is doing a great job. He also warned Americans about all the Fake News … in so many words … . America’s Motto has always been, “TOGETHER WE STAND, AND DIVIDED WE FALL.” Don’t let those LEFT WING SOCIALIST have it their way to overthrow AMERICA (https://www.c-span.org/video/?437405-1/louis-farrakhan-calls-president-trump-an-anomaly-criticizes-foreign-policy).

    GOD BLESS AMERICA!

    Reply to this comment

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