DimWit Politics

Democrats will have to cave in on the wall IF …

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Democrats will have to cave in on the wall IF …

Democrats will have to cave in on the wall IF …
December 31
16:04 2018

The government will not be shut down until Nancy Pelosi has been elected Speaker and had a few days to work up a strategy. It is highly unlikely that it can be settled in less than a week – and probably longer. There is a major reason why it could not be settled during the Christmas holiday while the GOP still held the House as it still required Democrat concurrence.

The main obstacle to any serious negotiation was Pelosi’s election to the speakership. She risked losing enough votes from the radical members of her caucus to thwart her election. This means that she would have had to gain Republican votes. If would not be the first time that members of the minority voted to help elect a Speaker of the opposing party. Trump has even said he would encourage Republican votes for Pelosi if she needed them. Of course, that would come at a cost – so Pelosi was AWOL at the negotiating table for that period.

Pelosi has more flexibility when she is sitting at the high podium overlooking the floor. This is important because it is very possible she will eventually have to surrender votes for Trump’s wall despite the tough talk of today.

Most of the media pundits and analysts argue that Trump is in the weak position and he will have to give in eventually. Au contraire.

Trump has the singular and sole ability to keep the partial shutdown going indefinitely – as long as the Senate Republicans will not join in a veto override. The chance of that is extremely unlikely.

Initially, Pelosi will have the House pass endless bills to get the government back to full inefficiency (and that is not a typo). They are political fodder for the base – as meaningless as all those bills the Republicans passed to rescind and replace Obamacare in the face of the ability of Senate Democrats to block a necessary supermajority vote and to count on a presidential veto if that were to fail.

The only thing that can make Trump fold is … Trump. He can hold out for weeks – even months if he so chooses. Unlike Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Trump does not have a collection of votes that must remain unified. And the longer the shutdown goes on, the more difficult it will be to prevent the desertion of skittish Democrats – especially those serving from less Democrat and less radical congressional districts in the heartland.

Initially, the public pressure is on Trump. It may seem very one-sided at 42 percent blaming him and 33 percent blaming the Democrats, but that is not an overwhelming number. Besides, it does not reflect the depth of commitment. As the shutdown goes on, it is inevitable that the sheer desire to open the government will shift – and the demands will be on the Democrats surrender. Remember. Many of those in that 42 percent may not like Trump and may still blame him, but once they believe that Trump WILL NOT give in, they will be calling on the Democrat members of Congress to give Trump the money he requests.

In a previous commentary, I even proposed that Trump drop his $5 billion request to $4.2 billion – and no lower. He should also announce that if the Democrats do not fund the $4.2 billion by January 31, he will go back to the $5 billion figure AND will not sign any legislation that provides back pay for furloughed workers except those essential workers who were on duty without pay. He can declare that to be his final offer regarding the wall funding — and then wait out the storm.

In the meantime, Trump, the congressional Republicans and the GOP, in general, could mount a public information campaign to explain again why border security is needed. Why there is a direct correlation between Democrats acceptance of open borders and support of sanctuary cities and crime and drugs – noting the recent deaths of people, including that police officer gunned down in California at the hands of criminal elements which are here illegally because of Democrat disregard.

Trump can also build public support by articulating a GOP plan to normalize the Dreamers. We know that he will not accept the blanket amnesty with no consequences, but any plan that provides the Dreamers with ongoing legal status would gain their support. Such a proposal given to the Democrats would be worthy of debate as part of a solution to the shutdown.

Trump can push back against the meaningless argument that Trump said Mexico would pay for the wall. So what. It is necessary regardless. The $5 billion is not an enormous amount of money to further secure the border and to get the government back in operation.
Trump has the advantage over previous government shutdowns. Because 75 percent of the government has been previously funded and continues to function – and all essential services are functioning regardless of pay – the impact of the shutdown is quite modest. It can continue for quite a while without significant impact on government services and the daily lives of the vast majority of Americans.

Of course, the media will flood the airways and newspapers with hyperbolic claims of anecdotal suffering. Ironically, these will only serve to bring about more pressure on the Democrats as Trump remains rock solid in his requirements.

IF – and that is a big IF –Trump remains tough, he will win the fight by attrition – first among the public and then among the congressional Democrats. It all depends on whether he can take the heat until the political winds shift.

So, there ‘tis.

About Author

Larry Horist

Larry Horist

Larry Horist is a conservative activist with an extensive background in economics, public policy and politics. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman, as well as the White House. He has testified as an expert witness before legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and lectured at major colleges and universities. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He can be reached at lph@thomasandjoyce.com.

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12 Comments

  1. Rosech
    Rosech January 01, 19:59

    Our President can withstand any thing and has for the last 2 yrs., s what is a few months more holding the shutdown. Time the democrats wake up and realize he wanted them to win the House just for this purpose and they are so full of crap they couldn’t recognize that nor accept he is far smarter and a head of them in every thing and has been for some 30 yrs. prepping just for this. Remember, Congress members are OUR EMPLOYEES and not our bosses and not our government either because WE THE PEOPLE ARE THE GOVERNMENT and time to take back the reins and kick butts out of OUR Congress. Greedy and power hungry but since we hired them, we can fire them and they know that but don’t we know that. No way their communism, thank you, as family has been there and done that, so let’s just fire the 2 parties in 1 and start fresh and each operating out of the home state and working by real time live videos, and we keep copies of the video just in case they think they can get away with crimes.

    Reply to this comment
    • DG
      DG January 02, 01:36

      Yes, we the people are the government, and our voices were heard in the 2018 mid-terms when many Republican lawmakers were kicked out and Dems took the House majority. They were elected to stop Trump and his childish, narcissistic behavior, not enable him.

      Reply to this comment
      • Drew
        Drew January 02, 03:25

        DG;

        You really are moronically stupid by your comments regarding Republican Lawmakers & President Trump. Obviously you are a card carrying Democrat rat blinded by your ” own Party’s narcissistic navel gazing ” that you can’t see the wood for the trees.

        How abouts you pop up out of your hole,& have a good long stroll around America the beautiful & see what your Party has cunningly done to outrageously enrich themselves at the hideous expense of honest, hard-working, proud American citizens . . . . regardless of political persuasion. The most laughable irony is this; you DG are one of their ” repeat victims ” & DNC Elites are howling all the way to the bank.

        Were you to just ” have a conversational chat ” with a conservative or Republican supporter, surprise, surprise . . . you just might find to your astonishment, that there are a great many things you agree on & your ” hard-earned ” is far more beneficial remaining in your back pocket, than finding its way into the corrupt DNC’s coffers

        Reply to this comment
  2. Tinks
    Tinks January 01, 20:20

    I have never read such BS in my life. Trump is losing his fight hourly. Plus the link to tell conservatives about a money scam is too funny. The supposed reboot is called bankruptcy. You can delete this if you want. I will post it on Twitter.

    Reply to this comment
  3. JakewyMa
    JakewyMa January 02, 14:19

    This is an excellent article. The article summarizes the potential strategies and positions well. Hopefully, Trump will stand his ground because otherwise we will not have a country to defend.

    Reply to this comment
  4. TA1
    TA1 January 02, 16:25

    I guess they don’t call this site “dimwit” for nothing. The moment someone makes an actual intelligent and informed (DC) statement, he gets insulted. Obviously this site is not about information, it is just about people going on with their opinions which are not based up facts.

    Notwithstanding my general empathy for Larry’s health issues, that does not give him license for leaving his mind in a storage locker at the airport. Trump has NO CONTROL over what party gets the House Majority. Last I was aware, people vote for those seats in state-level-elections (which includes California, which probably should consider building a wall to keep Trump and his friends out). Fortunately Trump never comes to California. Once he leaves Washington, New York might wanna consider building a wall too. He can have Florida, and claim that his wall will keep Puerto Ricans out.

    Reply to this comment
    • BW
      BW January 02, 20:33

      TA: obviously you dont live in California or you would know that we have the worst schools in the country, highest taxes in the country, largest gap between rich and poor in country, largest welfare population in the country, largest debt per person in the country, highest rents behind only New York. Oh and a 55 gallon per person water allowance coming 2022, removal of all fossil fuels, reduction of all farm land by 55% and all the jobs associated, two more gas taxes, free health care for illegal aliens but working people have to pay. People exiting on such a pace that many truck rental companies will not let you rent to move out of state. Should I go on because I can. You want to get real scared research all the bills that the Democrat super majority has planned this year

      Reply to this comment
    • Larry Horist
      Larry Horist January 05, 00:58

      You engage in a lot of personal insults and generalization, but like Tink, you offer no intelligent counterpoints. I am offering an analysis of the situation. If Trump does not cave, the Dems will have to… or that small portion of the government that is closed down will be closed for a loooooong time. He can veto any legislation as long as the Senate Republicans will not join in on an override… and as of now, there are not enough to do so. So, who do the Dems prevail?

      Reply to this comment
    • Tom
      Tom January 06, 07:24

      Mr Shithole knows better than to go anywhere on the West Coast. He is so universally hated there, he risks getting shot. As stupid as he is, he realizes he is not welcome there. And no, I would not shoot him. Leave that to some angry citizen in CA.

      Reply to this comment
  5. HrtbeatofAmerica
    HrtbeatofAmerica January 02, 22:31

    what exactly is the House going to accomplish w/o the Senate?

    Reply to this comment
  6. Larry Horist
    Larry Horist January 05, 01:02

    Nice to we that someone can comprehend both the motivation and the case I presented. It is not even about promoting one side or the other…. just how things could play out. I just do not see how anyone who understand Washington can say Trump has the weaker hand. Maybe he will cave… maybe he won’t, but that is up to him.

    Reply to this comment

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