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Elizabeth Warren’s Presidential Chances are Fading Already

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Elizabeth Warren’s Presidential Chances are Fading Already

Elizabeth Warren’s Presidential Chances are Fading Already
December 06
20:16 2018

Immediately following the election of President Trump, speculation turned to who might take him on in 2020. Yep! No sooner had Trump gotten to the last words of the presidential oath than the politicians and pundits started throwing out names of his potential successor.

High on that list was the Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. She was already a heroine of the radical left for her tirades against corporate America and for reclaiming the Senate seat once held by the inexplicably revered Senator Ted Kennedy – a seat temporarily and wrongfully usurped, in their judgment, by Republican Scott Brown.

In the bitter aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, Warren seemed to have the right demeanor to go mano y mo … uh … face-to-face with Trump. In many ways, she possessed an equally pugnacious and acerbic personality, filled continuously with fist-waving angry expressions of determination. I swear, if she were ordering coffee and a roll, it would sound more like Joan of Arc ordering the English out of Orléans in 1428. I know it is not politically correct to refer to a woman as being “shrill,” but good God, how else can you describe Warren’s rants? She has the voice of a crow in mating season. Warren is also a Twitter-aholic — and, she does have a hairstyle and color not entirely dissimilar to Trump’s.

There was a time that the bookmakers for the 2020 Democrat nomination for president had her as one of the three likelies – with former Vice President Joe Biden and socialist Senator Bernie Sanders being the other two. At the time, the list of “new generation” contenders was short and uncertain– and Hillary Clinton was considered out of the game permanently.

So why is Warren now a less likely candidate today to win the nomination in 2020? In fact, some now speculate that she would have to drop out eventually – or maybe even never throw her head feathers in the ring. Rather than any single reason that would block Warren from a Democrat nomination, there may be a conflation of reasons.

This lowered level of expectation is not coming from Republicans or those on the right – or even the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. It is coming from the hard left that she claims to represent. Under the headline “Why Is Elizabeth Warren So Hard to Love?”, Andy Kroll, of Boston News, wrote:

“With her populist proposals and fierce criticism of President Donald Trump, Senator Elizabeth Warren has become the new face of the Democratic Party and a favorite for the 2020 presidential race. So why are so many Massachusetts voters souring on her?”

Kroll further notes that “…as much as Massachusetts Democrats adore Warren’s brand of fiery populism, to a certain type of independent voter—let alone a conservative—her rhetoric can seem just as over the top, vitriolic, and off-putting as Trump’s.”

Warren may just be too much like Trump to appeal to those Democrats who are weary for the Trump style. They are longing for what George H.W. Bush characterized as a “kinder and gentler” nation in which those “thousand points of light” are not political fireworks. Warren, on the other hand, has been dismissed as “Trumpism with a bleeding heart.”

Another obstacle may be the number of Democrat contenders. That is a two-bladed sword. She may shrink in stature in comparison to such up-and-comers as Cory Brooker, Beto O’Rouke and Kamala Harris – with age being a consideration. Though the new generation – personified by Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Martin O’Malley – did not take over in 2016 with Trump (72) pitted against Clinton (69), they will eventually. People like Warren, who may have actually reached the unofficially unacceptable upper age limit in 2016, will be four years older (71) in 2020.

In 2020, the Democrats are likely to have a LOT of choices, but the seeming disadvantage could work in Warren’s favor. When there is a field of several candidates, the one with a solid hardcore base can win a plurality as the others divide up the other voters. That is how Trump got the GOP nomination in 2016. Though most Republican voters were opposed to Trump, they were spread thinly over 15 other candidates. Trump was winning those early primaries with less than a third of the vote.

Then there is that pesky Indian thing. It was not that Trump was very effective in mocking Warren. It was more than she has never been able to mount a convincing defense that she did not falsely claim Native American heritage as a resume and career enhancer.

She double-faulted when she attempted to establish her claim through DNA testing. She initially claimed that it proved her minority ancestry – albeit at such a minimal level that it could be – and was – seen as proof that her claims were unjustified. It was further revealed that even that claim was problematic since here DNA report spoke of the “probability” of some North American native blood – but it could have been from south of the border and into one of the ancient Mexican cultures. Or, nothing at all.

Friends have reported that Warren regrets having taken the DNA test – despite the chiding from Trump to do so. It was a mistake that lead to an ongoing political fiasco. Mockery is never an asset for a politician.

Then there is Hillary. After spending the post-2016 election season convincing friends that she would not go for a third run, she seems to have changed her mind. She has said that she would like to be President. The old ambition has not been entirely snuffed out. She still has a formidable political infrastructure – at least potentially. And outside of another politically wounding, what does she have to lose. She will certainly never be President if she does not run.

If Hillary does run, she will be reclaiming part of her infrastructure and donors that are gravitating to Warren. That was one of Warren’s problems in 2016 and will be again in 2020 if Hillary enters the race.

Lots of things can happen between now and 2020 – and will happen. But at the moment, Elizabeth Warren’s star appears to be dimming a bit.

So, there ‘tis.

About Author

Larry Horist

Larry Horist

Larry Horist is a conservative activist with an extensive background in economics, public policy and politics. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman, as well as the White House. He has testified as an expert witness before legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress, and lectured at major colleges and universities. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He can be reached at lph@thomasandjoyce.com.

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